NEW CROP VIDEO REPORT 19/20

MARKET UPDATE 5th JULY 2019

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AUD / USD ▲$0.70.2
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WATCH VIDEO REPORT: https://youtu.be/PVC0-EL3rt8

OVERSEAS MARKETS

The USDA released a rather surprising June acreage report last Friday that has been widely questioned for its accuracy. Given the excessive moisture and corresponding delays in planting during June, one would not have expected a 3% rise in corn planted acres but that is precisely what the USDA has reported. It is important to note that their survey took place in early June and planting intentions at the time were likely higher than what eventually went in the ground. Many in the trade expect these numbers to be inaccurate and the USDA took the additional step of planning a follow up survey to be released on Aug 12th to get a better read on how many acres actually were planted.

Regardless, these numbers set the stage for the drop in Corn and Wheat futures earlier this week. Corn fell by 26 cents before finding support at 412 and rising 21 cents at close on July 3rd. Chicago wheat followed a similar pattern by dropping 44 cents initially before rising 15 cents to enter the July 4th public holiday.

Internationally, the Ukraine grain harvest is in full swing with over 6 million tonnes being harvested from 1.9 million acres so far. The Russian wheat harvest and exports are also looking positive with high protein product being plentiful and export tariffs expected to be kept at zero. Russia’s total grain exports are expected to be in the 46-47 million tonne range. Germany is expected to have a larger winter wheat crop this year after a drought ravaged 2018. They are on course to harvest just over 24 million tonnes of winter wheat which is up from an especially small crop of 19.6 million tonnes last year. In South America, Argentina is forecasting an excellent crop of wheat, estimated at 22 million tonnes from 6.5 million hectares. Good rainfall is being cited as the main reason for the increase from the previous projection of 6.46 million hectares expected to be planted.

AUSTRALIA NEW CROP CEREALS

We have taken some time to investigate the projections on the current winter cropping season to assist in providing some reasoning behind current price fluctuations on new season bids. ABARES reports that total planted hectares will rise by 9% to 19.591 million metric tonnes for the 19/20 Season with production tipped to rise 20% to 36.379 million metric tonnes. Reports indicate an increase in planted hectares on Chickpeas by 22%, Oats by 17%, barley by 12%, Wheat by 8% and Canola by 6%. We will all be watching with bated breath for the September report.

On the back of this ABARES report, a USDA Report over the weekend indicating significantly higher corn plantings increases in Russian wheat production numbers we have seen the futures market soften since the weekend. When taking these reports into account the Australian futures and physical 19/20 season markets have softened over the last week. Delivered Melbourne zone 19/20 season wheat bids at the $327.00/mt down from $335.00/mt through last week. Bids into the Goulburn valley are at $320.00/mt and the Griffith market zone are working at $325.00/mt. In northern Markets Wheat Delivered Downs is being bid at $380.00/mt. Barley 19/20 season is being bid $288 Melbourne zone, $276 Goulburn Valley and $349 Darling Downs.

There is minimal engagement at this point from growers in the 19/20 new crop markets, feedback we have received in recent months indicated that the growers would generally like to see the season further progressed prior to entering this market. The majority of selling interest is coming from the trade while trade and end users alike are bidding in this market with no great consistence.

AUSTRALIAN NEW CROP PULSES

Some new crop Faba Bean buying interest coming in at around $640pmt Melb,
Which aside from this seasons record high prices traditionally is a good price, especially with a large Faba Bean crop potentially coming. Mostly grown in Vic and Sa both states have great had great starts to the season.

Demand this week for both Nipper and Nugget lentils at around 560-565pmt DCT Melb or Adelaide. So sideways market

Albus Lupin old crop demand around $970pmt DCT, grower expectations on these still much higher over $1000pmt on farm, very little product remaining.
New crop demand coming in at around $650pmt DCT Melb

Cottonseed remains stable at 440 – 450pmt ex MIA gins and Moree at around $515pmt for July only. Very few offers for aug onwards after this with gins in northern nsw expected to stop ginning in August. You would expect to see some price rises from August onwards given still dry in the north and the lack of cottonseed liquidity from then onward.

Oats remain stable to firm at 550-560 del Melb with product coming into Melb, Parkes and Newcastle from WA to service the various buyers. Very few oats remain in WA so this will be an interesting space once they dry up.

Showers have started in Western Australia already, with the latest models still forecasting for 15-25 millimetres or more across the entire wheatbelt into the weekend. A storm cell is still expected to hold to the south once it has crossed the Great Australian Bight, but there has been some improvement for the chance of rain in southern and central New South Wales, where 10-15mm would hold up crops nicely. However, very little rain is in the forecast for northern NSW and southern Queensland.

5TH JULY 2019 EXPECTED BIDS & OFFERS

Left Side: Market Bids ■ Right Side: Offers & Seller Expectations. Final Bids & Offers May Vary Depending On Exact Pickup or Delivery Location. Prices in AUD per metric tonne

BARLEY F1

Barley min F1:
Victoria Delivered Bids & Offers

Melbourne Range:
Bids▲ $387 – $390 ■ Offers ◄► $415-$440
Goulburn Valley:
Bids▲ $388-$390 ■ Offers ◄► $420-$450
Gippsland:
Bids ▲ $407 -$420 ■ Offers ◄► $450-$465

Barley min F1:
Queensland Delivered Bids & Offers

Central Qld:
Bids◄► $425 – $430 ■ Offers ◄► $432-$440
Downs:
Bids ◄► $425 – $430 ■ Offers ◄► $430 – $445
Bris Fot:
Bids◄► at $400 – $405 ■ Offers ▲ $410 – $415

Barley min F1:
NSW Delivered Bids & Offers

Liverpool Plains:
Bids ▲ $428 – $430 ■ Offers ◄► $452 – $465
Riverina:
Bids ▲ $422 – $425 ■ Offers ◄► $432 – $440
Newcastle Fot:
Bids▲ $405 – $410 ■ Offers◄► $405 – $415

Barley min F1:
South Australia Bids & Offers

Adelaide Fot:
Bids▲ $335-$337 ■ Offers ◄► $355-$365
Delivered South East:
Bids ▲ $355-$357 ■ Offers ◄► $395-$405

WHEAT Min ASW

Wheat min ASW:
Victoria Delivered Bids & Offers

Melbourne:
Bids▲ $388-$390 ■ Offers ◄► $432-$445
Goulburn Valley
Bids◄► $395-$400 ■ Offers ◄► $432-$442
Gippsland
Bids▲ $415-$420 ■ Offers ◄► $447-$465

Wheat min ASW:
Queensland Delivered Bids & Offers

Central Qld
Bids ◄► $420 – $425 ■ Offers ◄► $450-$458
Downs:
Bids ◄► $410 – $415 ■ Offers ◄► $455 -$465
Brisbane Fot
Bids ◄► $395 ■ Offers ◄►$407-$415

Wheat min ASW:
South Australia Bids & Offers

Adelaide Fot:
Bids ◄► $340-$345 ■ Offers ◄► $375-$395
Delivered South East:
Bids ◄► $377-$380 ■ Offers ◄►$405-$425

Wheat min ASW:
NSW Delivered Bids & Offers

Liverpool Plains
Bids ◄► $435-$440 ■ Offers◄► $455-$460
Riverina:
Bids ◄► $410-$420 ■ Offers ▲ $442-$455
Newcastle Fot:
Bids ◄► $397-$400 ■ Offers ◄► $410-$415

OATS M1

Delivered Melbourne:
Bids ◄► $555-$560 ■ Offers ◄► $565-$570
Fot Newcastle:
Offers Only ◄► $535 – $555
Fot Parkes:
Offers Only ◄► $580-$587

MAIZE/CORN:

Farm Gate Bids & Offers
Victoria Feed Corn

Bids ◄► $455-$460 ■ Offers ◄► $482-$485
Riverina Grit Corn
Bids ◄► $475-$485 ■ Offers ◄► $495 – $500
Delivered Northern NSW 
Bids $550-$555 ◄► ■ Offers ◄► $560-$570

COTTONSEED:

2019 Ex Gin Bids & Offers

Southern Gin Spread
Bids ◄► $445 -$450 ■ Offers ◄► $455-$500
Northern Gin Spread
Bids ◄► $512-$515 ■ Offers ◄► $525-$550
Queensland
Bids ◄► $535 ■ Offers ◄► $550-$575

SORGHUM

Delivered Central Qld
Bids◄► $320-$330 ■ Offers ◄► $350-$370
Delivered Downs
Bids◄► $330 – $335 ■ Offers ◄► $372-$385
Delivered Brisbane
Bids◄► $360-$365 ■ Offers ◄► $405-$415
Delivered Melbourne
Bids ◄► $440-$450 ■ Offers◄► $465-$470
Delivered Sydney
Bids ◄► $400-$405 ■ Offers ◄► $410-$420

WARNING

Western Australian & South Australian Grown Lupins Are NOT Permitted To Be Transported Into NSW Without Proper Authority Please Check With DPI

Round LUPINS

Round: Farm Gate Bids & Offers

Farm Gate Victorian Grown Only
Bids◄► $615 -$620 ■ Offers◄► $625 – $630

FOT Victorian Port Bids & Offers
Western Australian Origin

Melbourne FOT Offers Only ◄► $530

ALBUS LUPINS :

Export DCT Bids & Offers
Victoria

Bids◄► $950 ■ Offers ◄► $1200-$1420

FIELD PEAS

Melbourne DCT Export No1s
Bids ◄► $545 – $550 ■ Offers ◄► $625-$635
Victoria Farm Gate Feed Peas
Bids ◄► $525 – $530 ■ Offers ◄► $545-$550

FABA BEANS

Melbourne DCT Export No1s
Bids ◄► $825 – $835 ■ Offers ◄► $950-$1000
Victoria Farm Gate Feed Faba
Bids ◄► $750 – $755 ■ Offers ◄► $800-$850

LENTILS:

Export DCT Bids & Offers
Victoria / SA

Nippers: Bids ◄► $585-$595 ■ Offers ◄► $610-$620
Nuggets: Bids ◄► $565-$570 ■ Offers ◄► $610-$640

FEED LENTILS:

Farm Gate Bids & Offers
Victoria

Bids ◄► $440-$462 ■ Offers ◄► $470-$480

CHICKPEAS:

Export DCT Bids & Offers

Brisbane
Desi: Bids ◄► $725 – $730 ■ Offers ◄► $875 – $900
Kabuli: ◄► NO BIDS ■ Offers ◄► $1060-$1150
Melbourne / Adelaide
Desi: Bids ◄► $740 – $750 ■ Offers ◄► $875-$900
Kabuli: No Bids ◄► ■ Offers ◄► $1055-$1150

CANOLA

Non GM Min 42%
Delivered Bids & Offers

Delivered Melbourne:
Bids ◄► $580-$600 ■ Offers ◄► $640-$650
Delivered Riverina
Bids◄► $570 – $590 ■ Offers ◄►$650-$660
Delivered Sydney / Newcastle
Bids ◄► $625 – $630 ■ Offers ◄► $650-$660

For Firm Pricing & Market Guidance Call GrainPro

1800 816 887 or visit: www.grainpro.com.au


Please Note The Information Above and Below Are Views Of Market Conditions and Prices As Expressed By GrainPro Pty Ltd and Are Not to be taken As Advice, They Are Only A Guide. Please consider your own Personal and Commercial Circumstances and responsibilities When Buying or Selling.