Update Commentary:

USA: Big volume trading day expected in particular soybeans however choppy overnight with Corn ◄►, Beans ▼ 5 cents. Wheat ▼ 5 cents
Thursday 10th Jan 2019: The US/China Geo-Political trade talks still seemingly unclear leaving traders to speculate if and when China will return to the US for ordering Ag-products. Brazilian bean production estimates down by 2/mt from December estimates due to continuing dry conditions however corn production up slightly. So in all, the 3 major factors; dry conditions in Brazil, the US Government shutdown and the continuing US/China trade war will impact heavily on the minds of traders until more determining news comes from all or one of the 3 factors.

Australian Pricing Signals and Update

More reports of falling numbers as Victorian harvest come to an end however wheat prices remain strong with little difference between feed grades. Most Victorian growers sitting on the fence and cashing in on hay and straw sales for cash flow and only dribbling out a load or 2 as required. The outlook for both wheat and barley is extremely positive according to growers we have canvassed.
AUD gained slightly yesterday currently $0.718 after its collapse last week ($0.6749) however the AUD faces a tough task in the coming weeks as geo-political forces relax or tension.

As WA surplus grain now more attractive to send to TPP and other barley buying Nations rather than to East-Coast. Delivered prices into more traditional zones are strengthening (see pricing signals in the chart below) in particular delivered into MELB, NCTL, BRIS however growers/suppliers can expect a $15-$20 premium delivered into less traditional zones: LLP, NTH NSW, GV, RIV, CQ.

Grower sentiments (at least those that have any grain to sell) are suspicious of current advertised bids from brokers saying; they are being bid between $35-$50 less for barley / wheat. They lament because traditionally they have only seen a $15-$25 spread, this could be because of increased activity in the trading of “spreads’ where speculators chop and change hoping to make a few dollars in the fluctuations. Nonetheless most growers are telling us that they will sell only small amounts and only if they need to.

Below is a list of price indications and estimates as at 11 January 2019

Price estimates are based on averages & dependent on X-Farm Location or Delivery Methods, Prices indicated below show the fluctuations ▲▼ ◄► from the previous update. Positive short-term pricing outlook (6-8 Weeks) indicated by ✪ Long-Term (3-6 Months) ✪ ✪

Grain Price Fluctuations and Indicative Prices For Today 11 January 2019

BARLEY F1: (Delivered)
VIC: MELB ▲ $411 / GV ▲ $428 / WG ▲ $448 ✪ ✪
SA: ADL ▲ $380 ✪ ✪
QLD: CQ ▲ $435 / BRIS ▲ $438 ✪ ✪
NSW: LLP ▲ $445 / RIV ▲ $455 / NCTL ▲ $425 ✪ ✪

WHEAT min SFW: (Delivered)
VIC: MELB ▲ $440 / GV ▲ $445 / WG ▲ $460
SA: ADL from ▲ $390
QLD: CQ ▲ $442 / BRIS ▲ $445
NSW: LLP ▲ $455 / RIV ▲ $455 / NCTL ◄► $435

CHICKPEAS: (DCT) BRIS / MELB / ADL / SYD – Desi ▼ $855 Kabuli ▲$795
LENTILS: (DCT) VIC / SA ▼ Nipper $622 / Jumbo ◄► $690
CANOLA: (Delivered) VIC ▲ $612 NSW ▲ $620 ✪
SORGHUM: (Delivered) CQ ◄► $345 BRIS ◄► $355 / NCTL ▼ $365 MELB ▲ $390 ✪
OATS M1: (Delivered) VIC ◄► $525 RIV ◄► $545 NTH NSW ▲ $565+ QLD ▼ $575 ✪
CORN: (Delivered) NSW ◄► $575 VIC ◄► $545
LUPINS Rnd: (Delivered) VIC ▼ $560 SA ▲ $535 NTH NSW ▼ $615 ✪
LUPINS Albus: (DCT) VIC ▲: $1155 SA ▲ $1095 ✪
FIELD PEAS: (Delivered) VIC ◄► $640 SA ▲ $635
FABA BEANS: (DCT) VIC ▲$955 SA ▲ $950
HAY: (On-Farm) SA / VIC ◄► $210 – $240
STRAW: (On-Farm) SA / VIC / NSW ◄► $100 – $120
CANOLA MEAL: (FOT) VIC ▲ $460 NSW ▲ $480 ✪
COTTONSEED: FOT: MIA RIV ▲ $535 NTH NSW ▲ $555 ✪
ALMOND HULLS: FOT: VIC ▲ $200

*For more information on market strategy feel free to call GrainPro Account Reps.

Mario: General Market Strategy PH: 0412 315 548
Cameron: Pulses and Export Market PH: 0488 400 660
Nick: Cereals Market PH: 0457 238 932
Angela: Planting Seed & Fertiliser PH: 0407 462 385
Jemma: Hay & Feed Market PH: 1800 816 887